Runner Documentation — AI-Native Trading Terminal for Prediction Markets
Runner is an AI-native trading terminal built for prediction markets. It aggregates fragmented liquidity, structures probabilistic data, and enables intelligent trade execution — all in one interface, connected to Polymarket.
Runner finds mispricings. It pulls data from on-chain sources, oracles, prediction market APIs, betting providers, news feeds, and market sentiment — processes it through AI models trained on historical trades and live order flow — and surfaces the signal you need before the market corrects.
Runner is non-custodial. Your private key never leaves your browser. Runner's servers cannot withdraw your funds even if fully compromised.
| What you get | What it means |
|---|---|
| AI probability models | Trained on historical trades and real-time order flow to predict market moves before they happen |
| Real-time geopolitical intelligence | Military data, satellite feeds, and global news correlated to live markets — sub-15 second latency |
| Non-custodial trading | Your keys, your money — no server ever holds your private key |
| Smart copy trading | AI-filtered leaderboard with strategy playbooks extracted from top trader behavior |
| Whale tracking | See where informed capital is flowing before the market reprices |
| Sports market edge | Live game data, injury feeds, and statistical models surfaced against live sports markets |
What Problem It Solves
Prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools ever created. The problem is that retail traders operate at a severe structural disadvantage.
| The problem | What it costs you |
|---|---|
| Signal latency. Events happen. Markets don't reprice instantly. | The window closes in seconds. You can't monitor 20 data sources manually. |
| Custodial risk. Most platforms hold your keys server-side. | One server breach = full access to your funds. |
| Opacity of top traders. Who's consistently profitable? | The blockchain is public, but interpreting it requires infrastructure most people don't have. |
| Fragmented tooling. Order book here, news there, analytics elsewhere. | By the time you piece it together, the opportunity is gone. |
How It Works
Terminal is built around a single principle: information asymmetry is the only durable edge in prediction markets. The platform systematizes that edge across three layers.
- Intelligence layer — ATLAS + Oracle: Monitors 8 real-time data sources. Fuses signals, scores them, and matches them to active Polymarket markets. Sub-15 second latency from real-world event to your screen.
- Analytics layer — Leaderboard + Copy Trading + Whales: Indexes Polymarket's public on-chain data. Ranks every active trader by PnL, win rate, and ROI. Tracks large wallet movements in real time.
- Execution layer — Trading Engine: Non-custodial order placement via session keys. Your private key stays in your browser. Market and limit orders. Gasless transactions.
Signal flow example
- ATLAS detects E-6B nuclear command aircraft over Pacific (CRITICAL event)
- EventFusionEngine matches to "US military conflict" Polymarket markets
- Confidence score: 0.78 — multiple independent sources confirm
- Pulse detects order book thinning on the same market simultaneously
- Terminal surfaces: "High-confidence SIGINT + orderbook signal"
- You review the signal, assess the market price, and decide to trade
Key Features
- ATLAS: 8-source geopolitical intelligence with adaptive confidence scoring. Military aircraft, vessels, airspace events, news.
- Oracle: News events auto-matched to prediction markets. ~68% confirmation rate. Full signal lifecycle.
- Pulse: Real-time orderbook monitoring. Volume spikes, large orders, bid-ask compression.
- Copy Trading: Full leaderboard ranked by PnL, win rate, ROI. One-click copy with configurable allocation.
- Whale Alerts: Live feed of large trades (>$10K). Track where informed capital is flowing.
- Trading Engine: Market and limit orders on Polymarket's CLOB. Session keys. Gasless USDC permits.
- Security Model: Private keys stay in your browser. Server compromise = trading only. No withdrawal risk.
- Portfolio Analytics: Live PnL on open positions. Unrealized/realized returns. Full trade history by category.
AI-Native Engine
Runner is built AI-first. AI isn't a feature bolted on top — it's the core mechanism by which the platform processes data, identifies opportunities, and assists execution. Every module feeds into the same probabilistic reasoning layer.
What Runner's AI layer ingests: On-chain trade history, real-time order flow, SIGINT event stream, news & sentiment feeds, betting market prices, alpha community signals, cross-market correlations, historical resolution data, whale wallet behavior.
AI Models
| Model function | What it does | Where you see it |
|---|---|---|
| Probability shift detection | Compares current market price to model-estimated true probability. Surfaces mispriced markets before they correct. | Overview badge on market cards |
| Strategy deconstruction | Analyses top trader trade sequences and reverse-engineers their decision logic into readable playbooks. | Trader detail page → Playbook tab |
| Hypothesis validation | Cross-references a trading thesis against live data from multiple venues: Polymarket, betting markets, news flow. | Oracle signal confidence scoring |
| Opportunity surfacing | Combines ATLAS events, Oracle signals, and Pulse anomalies into a ranked opportunity feed. | ATLAS feed, Oracle feed, Pulse feed |
Smart Copy Trading
Standard copy trading replicates positions. Runner's AI layer goes further — it analyses why a trader is profitable, not just that they are.
- Strategy fingerprinting: For each trader, the AI extracts a strategy profile: which categories they dominate, typical entry timing relative to events, position sizing patterns, and how quickly they exit.
- Compatibility scoring: Before you copy someone, Runner scores compatibility between their strategy profile and current market conditions.
- Execution filtering: Not every trade a top trader makes is equally high-conviction. AI execution filtering can distinguish between a trader's high-confidence plays and their speculative positions.
AI Execution Assistance
| Check | What AI evaluates | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Opportunity quality | Signal confidence, cross-source agreement, time to market correction | High / Medium / Low conviction rating |
| Position sizing | Your available balance, market liquidity, spread width, current exposure | Suggested USDC amount and max recommended size |
| Order routing | Market vs limit order given current spread, expected fill time, event urgency | Recommended order type with explanation |
AI execution assistance is advisory — it never places trades on your behalf without your confirmation.
Sports Markets
Sports markets on Polymarket are one of the highest-liquidity categories. They resolve cleanly — a team either wins or it doesn't — which makes them well-suited for quantitative approaches.
How It Works
| Data layer | What Runner tracks | Update frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Live scores | Real-time in-game scores across major leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, Premier League, Champions League, UFC) | Every 30 seconds |
| Pre-game lines | Opening and current betting market prices from multiple sportsbooks | Every 60 seconds |
| Injury reports | Official injury and roster updates from team sources and sports news feeds | As published |
| Historical match data | Head-to-head records, recent form, home/away performance, scoring patterns | Updated seasonally |
| Polymarket prices | Live YES/NO prices on all active sports markets | Real-time |
Finding Edge in Sports Markets
- Pre-game line movement: When sportsbook prices shift significantly in the hours before a game, it often signals sharp money acting on new information. If the Polymarket price hasn't moved yet, there may be a short window.
- In-game momentum: During live events, prediction market prices update slower than the action on the field. Runner's live scoreboard data updates faster than most market participants react.
- Late injury news: A starting quarterback or striker ruled out minutes before kickoff is a high-impact event. Runner's injury feed monitors official sources and can surface this before it propagates to Polymarket prices.
- Series markets: Multi-game series markets accumulate edge over time. Runner tracks cumulative performance data across games to model series probabilities.
| Sport | Market types | Best edge window |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | Winner, spread, game total, division winner | Thursday–Sunday during season; injury reports Wed–Fri |
| NBA | Game winner, series winner, MVP, playoff seeds | Back-to-back games; in-game if blowout develops |
| Premier League | Match result, season winner, relegation | Starting XI leaks ~1h before kickoff |
| Champions League | Match result, group stage qualification | Away goal situations in second legs |
| UFC / MMA | Fight winner, method of victory | Late scratches and replacement fighters |
Getting Started
You can browse markets, explore signals, and view the leaderboard without an account. To trade, you need a wallet and USDC on Polygon.
- Connect your wallet: Click Connect in the top-right corner. Sign in with email, Google, or a self-custody wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, WalletConnect). Privy creates an embedded wallet if you don't have one.
- Get USDC on Polygon: All Polymarket trades use USDC on the Polygon network. Buy on Coinbase or Binance, then bridge via the Polygon Bridge.
- Create a Session Key: Before trading, you'll be prompted to create a Session Key — a temporary signing key derived from your wallet. It lets Terminal submit orders without requiring manual signing every time. The session key is derived in your browser and stored only in localStorage. It is never transmitted to Terminal's servers. Sessions expire after 8 hours and can be revoked instantly.
- Find a market: Browse markets by category (Politics, Crypto, Sports). Use search to find any market by keyword. Click any market to see the order book, price chart, and related signals.
- Place your first order: On any market page, choose YES or NO, select Market (instant fill) or Limit (your price), enter size in USDC and click Place Order.
- Track your positions: Open positions appear in your Portfolio with live unrealized PnL, entry price, and current market price.
ATLAS — Intelligence Module
ATLAS (Adaptive Threat & Location Analysis System) monitors real-world military and geopolitical activity, fuses signals from multiple independent sources, and surfaces trade-relevant events before they appear in mainstream news. Access at /atlas.
Data Sources
| Tier | Source | What it tracks | Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | OpenSky Network | All civil and military aircraft — position, altitude, speed | 60s |
| Tier 1 | ADS-B Exchange | Military aircraft with flag bitmask — higher fidelity | 30s |
| Tier 2 | AISHub | Vessel positions — carrier groups, destroyers, dark ships | 60s |
| Tier 3 | ICAO iSTARS | NOTAM airspace closures, military TFRs | 5min |
| Tier 3 | GPSJam.org | GPS interference and electronic warfare | 15min |
| Tier 3 | CelesTrak | Reconnaissance satellite TLE orbital data | 6h |
| Tier 4 | GDELT 2.0 | 100+ language global media, conflict scoring, entity extraction | 5min |
| Tier 4 | 7× Military RSS | Defense News, The War Zone, Jane's, Breaking Defense + 3 more | 5min |
Some aircraft trigger immediate CRITICAL alerts regardless of thresholds: E-6B Mercury (nuclear command relay), E-4B Nightwatch (National Airborne Operations Center), RC-135 Rivet Joint (signals intelligence).
Reading Signals
| Signal level | Z-score | What it means | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| WATCH | > 2.0 | Activity elevated above 30-day baseline | Monitor — context needed |
| ALERT | > 3.5 | Significant statistical anomaly | Review matched markets |
| CRITICAL | Instant trigger | High-value platform in geo-fence | Act immediately |
Confidence = sum of source boosts: Aircraft +0.15, Maritime +0.10, Airspace +0.12, News +0.08, 3+ sources bonus +0.08. Maximum: 0.95 (hard cap).
4D Replay
ATLAS maintains a 24-hour sliding window. The timeline control lets you replay any historical period, adjust playback speed (1×–30×), and pause at any moment to inspect event details.
Oracle Signals
Oracle monitors 10+ global news sources continuously, extracts named entities from every article, and matches them to active prediction markets — surfacing the connection before the market reprices. Access at /oracle.
How It Works
- News ingestion: Oracle polls Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, Google News, GDELT, and specialist sources every few seconds.
- Entity extraction: Each article is parsed for named entities: people (Trump, Zelensky, Powell), organizations (Fed, NATO), countries, and topics (ceasefire, rate hike).
- Market matching: Entities are matched against all live Polymarket markets. Only matches above a threshold generate a signal.
- Signal created (PENDING): A PENDING signal is created immediately. You see it before the market reprices.
- Price monitoring: Oracle watches the matched market's YES/NO price for the next 2 hours.
- Resolution: Price moves >3% in the predicted direction → CONFIRMED. If not within 2 hours → EXPIRED.
Signal Tiers
| Tier | Confidence | Meaning | Typical time to confirm |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRITICAL | > 65% | Direct causal link — market reaction very likely | < 5 minutes |
| STRONG | 50–65% | High-quality signal with clear entity match | < 30 minutes |
| ALERT | 35–50% | Moderate — worth monitoring | 30–90 minutes |
| WATCH | < 35% | Weak match — low probability | Usually EXPIRED |
Using Signals Effectively
| Market category | Confirmation rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | ~71% | Elections and policy news are highly correlated |
| Sports | ~72% | Game outcomes directly resolve sports markets |
| Crypto | ~64% | Volatile but directionally predictable |
| Geopolitics | ~66% | Complex multi-factor events |
Pulse
Pulse monitors Polymarket's order book across all active markets simultaneously, detecting unusual activity patterns in real time. Where Oracle watches news, Pulse watches the market itself. Access at /pulse.
| Signal type | What it means | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Volume spike | 24h volume significantly above historical average | Something is happening — news, whale entry, or resolution approach |
| Large single-side order | Big buy or sell hitting one side of the book | Informed trader entering — possible information edge |
| Bid-ask compression | Spread narrowing rapidly | Price consensus forming — market becoming more efficient |
| Price spike | YES or NO price moving >5% in a short window | Breaking development — act quickly or watch closely |
The ATLAS + Pulse combination: When ATLAS detects a geopolitical event and Pulse shows simultaneous order book thinning on the matched market — that's the highest-conviction setup Terminal surfaces.
Copy Trading
Terminal indexes Polymarket's public on-chain data to build a real-time leaderboard. Copy Trading lets you replicate top traders' positions proportionally. Browse the leaderboard at /traders.
Selecting Traders
| Metric | What to look for | Red flag |
|---|---|---|
| Total PnL | Consistently positive, not from a single lucky trade | 500% spike in one month, flat otherwise |
| Win Rate | 55–70% across diverse market categories | 80%+ on tiny sample — likely luck |
| ROI | Return relative to capital deployed | High PnL but huge capital = low efficiency |
| Sample size | Minimum 30–50 closed positions | Under 15 trades — no statistical basis |
| Consistency | Profitable across different time periods | All profits in one month, then nothing |
Risks
Copy trading inherits the underlying trader's risks. Even the best traders have losing streaks. Diversify across 3–5 traders in different categories.
| Risk type | Description | How to mitigate |
|---|---|---|
| Concentration risk | Copying one trader who specialises in one category | Follow 3–5 traders across different categories |
| Drawdown | Even good traders lose money for stretches | Only allocate what you can hold through a 30–40% drawdown |
| Strategy drift | Trader changes approach over time | Review performance monthly |
| Correlation | Multiple copied traders all entering the same market | Check if your traders overlap in exposure |
Whale Alerts
Whales are participants with enough capital to meaningfully move market prices. Tracking their moves provides real-time signals about where informed money is flowing. Access at /whales.
| Trade size | Category | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| < $1,000 | Retail | Typical participant |
| $1,000–$10,000 | Serious | Worth noting in thin markets |
| $10,000–$100,000 | Large trader | Meaningful price impact |
| > $100,000 | Whale | Can move illiquid markets significantly |
- Confirmation signal: A whale entering YES on a political market while price moves from 45% to 55% = strong informed money signal.
- Contrarian signal: Market at 90% YES and whales heavily buying NO = consider the contrarian position.
- Exit signal: When a whale who built a large position starts selling — watch closely.
Trading Engine
Terminal provides direct, non-custodial access to Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon. All trades settle on-chain in USDC.
Order Types
| Order type | How it works | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| Market (Fill Or Kill) | Executes immediately at best available price. Cancels if it can't fully fill. | Time-sensitive trades around news events |
| Limit (Good Till Cancelled) | Sits in the order book until matched at your price or cancelled. | Patient entries, or when spreads are wide |
Slippage: Market orders include a ±2% tolerance. If the market moves beyond that before fill, the order is cancelled.
Session Keys
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiry | 8 hours from creation |
| Storage location | Browser localStorage only — never transmitted to server |
| Permissions | Can trade on Polymarket. Cannot withdraw USDC. Cannot transfer funds. |
| Revocation | Instant — invalidates all pending orders immediately |
| Recovery | Re-derive from your primary wallet at any time |
Gasless Trading
- BUY orders — Free via ERC-2612 Permit: Instead of an on-chain approval transaction, Terminal uses an ERC-2612 permit signature. You sign a message in your browser; Terminal's relayer submits the permit and pays the gas.
- SELL orders — Automatic MATIC funding: Selling requires a setApprovalForAll on-chain transaction. If your session key has insufficient MATIC, Terminal's relayer automatically sends 0.02 MATIC. Rate limit: 5 per user per hour.
Security
Terminal's security model assumes the server can be fully compromised. Even in that scenario, attackers cannot access your funds.
| What the server has | Risk if compromised |
|---|---|
| Session key public address | Zero — a public address has no signing power |
| Encrypted CLOB credentials (AES-256-GCM) | Attacker can trade on your behalf, but cannot withdraw |
| Primary wallet private key | N/A — never exists on Terminal's server |
| Session key private key | N/A — never leaves your browser |
| What's encrypted | Algorithm | Key derivation |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket CLOB credentials | AES-256-GCM | PBKDF2, 100,000 iterations, SHA-256 |
| IV (initialization vector) | 12 bytes, random per encryption | Unique ciphertext every time |
| Auth tag | 16 bytes | Tampered data fails decryption — integrity guaranteed |
FAQ
- Are my funds safe?
- Your funds are in your Polymarket account, not on Terminal's server. Terminal cannot withdraw your USDC — it can only submit trades via a session key. A server compromise means trading access only, not withdrawal access.
- What happens if I lose my session key?
- Nothing permanent. You can regenerate it at any time by signing a derivation message with your primary wallet. Losing your session key is like losing a hotel keycard — your wallet (the real key) is fine.
- Why didn't my order fill?
- Market orders: price moved beyond the 2% slippage tolerance before fill. Limit orders: no counterparty has matched your price yet. Also check your USDC balance and session key status.
- What is USDC and how do I get it?
- USDC (USD Coin) is a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US Dollar. Buy it on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken, then bridge to the Polygon network.
- Can I trade from any country?
- Polymarket restricts access from certain jurisdictions including the United States. This is enforced at the Polymarket level. Terminal cannot override geographic restrictions.
- What are the fees?
- Terminal charges no platform fees. Polymarket's CLOB has standard maker/taker fees. Gasless trading via Terminal means you pay no MATIC for most transactions.
- What is slippage?
- The difference between the expected price and actual execution price. Terminal's market orders have a ±2% tolerance — if the market moves beyond that before fill, the order is cancelled.
- What if a prediction market is disputed?
- Polymarket uses UMA's optimistic oracle for disputed resolutions. If challenged, UMA token holders vote on the correct outcome. If resolved as N/A, all positions are refunded at cost.
Troubleshooting
Order not executing
- Check your USDC balance
- For market orders: price may have moved beyond 2% slippage tolerance — try a limit order
- Check session key status — sessions expire after 8 hours
- For limit orders: your price may be too far from current market
Session key expired
- Open wallet settings (top right)
- Click 'Create Session Key'
- Sign the derivation message with your primary wallet
- New session key is derived client-side
USDC balance not showing
- Make sure your USDC is on Polygon, not Ethereum mainnet
- Wait 30–60 seconds for balance to update
- Try refreshing the page
- Disconnect and reconnect your wallet
Best Practices
| Scenario | What to look for | Conviction level |
|---|---|---|
| News breaks | Oracle signal PENDING + Pulse volume spike on matched market | Medium |
| ATLAS event fires | ATLAS signal + related market has thin order book (Pulse) | Medium-High |
| Multiple sources | ATLAS CRITICAL + Oracle STRONG + Whale entering YES | High |
| Single signal only | Oracle WATCH or ATLAS ALERT alone | Low — monitor only |
Common mistakes to avoid
- FOMO entries: If a market has already moved 20% on a news event, the opportunity has passed.
- Revenge trading: After a loss, resist the urge to recover immediately. Prediction markets are not mean-reverting on short timeframes.
- Ignoring liquidity: A market with $5K total volume will have wide spreads and significant slippage.
- Passive copy trading: Copy trading is an active strategy. Review your copied traders monthly.
Developer Notes
SIGINT / ATLAS API
| Method | Endpoint | Description |
|---|---|---|
| GET | /api/sigint/events | Recent SIGINT events (last 500, ring buffer) |
| GET | /api/sigint/fusion | Fusion events with confidence scores |
| GET | /api/sigint/stats | Source weights, accuracy metrics, system health |
| SSE | /api/sigint/stream | Server-Sent Events stream for real-time events |
Trading API
| Method | Endpoint | Description |
|---|---|---|
| POST | /api/aa/wallet/derive-and-register | Initialize session key, obtain CLOB credentials |
| GET | /api/aa/wallet/status | Session validity and expiry timestamp |
| DELETE | /api/aa/wallet/revoke | Immediately revoke active session |
| POST | /api/aa/trade/submit-order | Submit EIP-712 signed order to CLOB |
| GET | /api/aa/trade/positions | Open positions with live unrealized PnL |
| GET | /api/aa/trade/orderbook/:tokenId | Real-time order book for a token |
Oracle API
| Method | Endpoint | Description |
|---|---|---|
| GET | /api/oracle/signals | Recent signals with status and confidence |
| GET | /api/oracle/stats | Accuracy metrics by category and time period |
| GET | /api/oracle/rss.xml | RSS feed for external integrations |
Rate limits
| Endpoint group | Limit |
|---|---|
| Session initialization | 10 per hour |
| Order submission | 30 per minute |
| Balance / order history | 60 per minute |
| Gasless relay | 5 per user / hour, 200 globally / hour |
All trading API endpoints require a valid session key. Requests with mismatched or expired session keys are rejected with HTTP 401.
For machine-readable context: /llms.txt | /llms-full.txt