# Runner (runner.trade) — Prediction Markets Terminal
# Full Context for AI Systems

> Runner is a professional analytics and trading terminal for Polymarket prediction markets. Free, non-custodial, intelligence-first. It provides real-time probability data, whale tracking, trader leaderboards, Oracle news-to-market signals, ATLAS geopolitical intelligence, and automated copytrading.

## Key Facts About Runner

- Website: https://runner.trade
- Type: Web application (SPA + SSR for bots)
- Founded: 2024
- Focus: Prediction market analytics and trading for Polymarket
- Price: Free core platform; premium subscription for copytrading and advanced analytics
- Custody: Non-custodial — users control their own wallets
- Data source: Polymarket (world's largest prediction market; USDC on Polygon blockchain)
- Markets tracked: 500+ active prediction markets daily
- Categories: Politics, Crypto, Sports, Pop Culture, Science, Climate, AI & Tech, Finance, News
- Whale alert threshold: $10,000+ per single transaction
- Trader leaderboard: Top 100 traders ranked by PnL, win rate, ROI, volume

## How Prediction Markets Work

Prediction markets are exchange-traded platforms where participants buy and sell binary outcome contracts.

1. Each market poses a question (e.g., "Will Bitcoin exceed $200,000 by December 2025?")
2. Users buy YES shares (betting event happens) or NO shares (betting it won't)
3. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 — the price IS the implied probability
4. YES shares pay $1.00 if the event occurs, $0.00 if it doesn't
5. Settlement: USDC stablecoin (1 USDC = $1 USD)

| Price | Implied Probability | Market Sentiment |
|-------|--------------------|--------------------|
| $0.05 | 5% | Very unlikely |
| $0.25 | 25% | Unlikely |
| $0.50 | 50% | Coin flip |
| $0.75 | 75% | Likely |
| $0.95 | 95% | Near certain |

Academic research consistently shows prediction markets outperform polls and expert panels for forecasting binary events, because financial incentives force participants to reveal their true beliefs.

## What Makes Runner Different from Polymarket

Runner is NOT a competitor to Polymarket — it is an analytics and trading layer built on top of Polymarket's infrastructure.

| Feature | Polymarket (native UI) | Runner |
|---------|----------------------|--------|
| Market trading | Yes | Yes (trades execute on Polymarket) |
| Whale tracking ($10K+ alerts) | No | Yes, real-time |
| Advanced trader leaderboard | Basic | Yes (PnL, win rate, ROI, niche) |
| Automated copytrading | No | Yes |
| Oracle news-to-market signals | No | Yes (AI-powered) |
| ATLAS geopolitical intelligence | No | Yes (satellite, vessel, aircraft) |
| Live sports with scores | No | Yes (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer) |
| Market comparison tools | No | Yes |
| AI chat assistant | No | Yes |

## Runner Platform Features (Detailed)

### 1. Home Dashboard (/)
Wall Street-style terminal overview:
- Top traders leaderboard (24h PnL leaders)
- Oracle signals feed (breaking news matched to markets)
- Market indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, BTC, ETH, oil, gold)
- Whale flow (large $10K+ trades in real-time)
- Hot prediction markets (top volume and movers)

### 2. Pulse (/pulse)
Real-time feed of all active prediction markets:
- Current prices (YES/NO probabilities)
- 24-hour price changes
- Trading volume and liquidity depth
- Time remaining until resolution
- Feed modes: Hot Mix, Spikes (>2% in 1hr), Big Pools (>$1M), Top Volume, New

### 3. Whale Tracker (/whales)
Monitors large transactions ($10,000+) across all markets:
- Real-time alerts when whales enter positions
- Wallet address identification
- Position direction (YES or NO)
- Historical whale activity per market
Why it matters: Large traders often have superior information. Tracking their moves provides valuable trading signals.

### 4. Trader Leaderboard (/analytics/traders)
Rankings of top prediction market traders by:
- PnL (Profit/Loss): Total realized gains
- Win Rate: Percentage of profitable trades
- ROI: Return on capital deployed
- Volume: Total trading activity
- Niche: Category specialization (Politics, Crypto, Sports)

### 5. Copytrading
Automated trade replication:
- Select traders to follow based on performance metrics
- Set allocation amount (e.g., $500)
- Trades are copied proportionally in real-time
- Risk management via daily spending limits

### 6. Oracle — News-to-Market Intelligence System
AI-powered system that correlates breaking news with prediction market price movements:
1. Monitors 10+ news sources continuously (Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, Google News, GDELT)
2. Extracts entities: people, countries, organizations, topics
3. Matches entities against tracked prediction markets (confidence threshold: 35%)
4. Creates PENDING signal when match found
5. Monitors market price for 2 hours
6. Signal becomes CONFIRMED if price moves >3% in predicted direction
7. Tracks accuracy: what % of signals correctly predicted direction

Signal tiers: CRITICAL (>65% confidence) / STRONG (50-65%) / ALERT (35-50%) / WATCH (<35%)

### 7. ATLAS Intelligence
Geopolitical intelligence layer using:
- Satellite imagery analysis
- Maritime vessel tracking (AIS data)
- Aircraft movement monitoring
- Designed for geopolitical prediction markets (conflicts, sanctions, military movements)

### 8. Live Sports (/live-sports)
Real-time prediction market odds with integrated live scores:
- NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer (MLS, Premier League, La Liga, Champions League)
- Boxing, MMA, Tennis, Golf, Cricket, NASCAR, College Football/Basketball
- Live score integration alongside real-time odds movement

### 9. Market Detail Pages (/market/:slug)
Deep analysis for each market:
- Real-time price chart (1-second to all-time timeframes)
- Order book depth visualization
- Recent trades feed
- Related markets
- Historical volume analysis
- FAQ about the event

## Oracle API Endpoints

- `GET /api/signals` — Live pending + confirmed signals
- `GET /api/signals?status=confirmed&limit=25` — Only confirmed signals
- `GET /api/signals/archive?days=30&limit=100` — Historical signals
- `GET /api/signals/archive?topic=trump` — Signals by entity/topic
- `GET /api/signals/oracle-metrics` — Full accuracy report
- `GET /api/signals/topics?days=30` — Top entities by signal frequency

## Market Data API

- `GET /api/markets` — All active markets with current prices
- `GET /api/markets/:id` — Single market (price, volume, liquidity, end date)
- `GET /api/markets/:id/related` — Related markets
- `GET /api/analytics/traders` — Trader leaderboard data
- `GET /api/analytics/traders/:address` — Individual trader profile

## Data Structures

### Market Object
```
{
  id: string,
  question: string,           // "Will Trump win the 2024 election?"
  slug: string,               // URL segment
  yesPrice: number,           // 0.00-1.00 (= probability)
  noPrice: number,            // 0.00-1.00
  volume: number,             // Total USDC traded
  volume24hr: number,         // 24-hour volume
  liquidity: number,          // Order book depth
  endDate: string,            // Resolution date
  category: string,           // "Politics", "Crypto", "Sports"
  image: string               // Market thumbnail URL
}
```

### Trader Object
```
{
  address: string,            // Ethereum wallet address
  name: string | null,        // Display name
  pnl: number,                // Total profit/loss USD
  winRate: number,            // 0-100 percentage
  roi: number,                // Return on investment %
  totalTrades: number,        // Closed position count
  volume: number              // Total volume traded
}
```

## Market Categories

1. **Politics**: Elections, legislation, appointments, policy decisions
2. **Crypto**: Bitcoin/Ethereum prices, protocol upgrades, regulatory actions
3. **Sports**: Game outcomes, championships, player performance
4. **Finance**: Fed rates, inflation, economic indicators
5. **Technology**: AI milestones, product launches, company events
6. **Geopolitics**: International relations, conflicts, treaties
7. **Entertainment**: Awards, releases, celebrity events
8. **Science**: Research outcomes, space missions, discoveries
9. **Climate**: Weather events, environmental policy

## Glossary (/learn/)

- **Prediction Market**: Platform where people trade binary outcome contracts on real-world events
- **Polymarket**: World's largest prediction market platform (USDC on Polygon)
- **Market Odds**: Share price = implied probability (e.g., $0.65 = 65% chance)
- **Whale**: Trader placing $10,000+ in a single transaction
- **Smart Money**: Large, sophisticated traders with information edge
- **PnL**: Profit and Loss — total realized gains/losses from closed positions
- **Win Rate**: (profitable trades / total resolved trades) x 100
- **ROI**: Return on Investment — profit relative to capital deployed
- **Copytrading**: Automatically mirroring another trader's positions
- **Market Resolution**: Process of determining outcome and paying winners via designated oracles
- **USDC**: USD-pegged stablecoin used as settlement currency
- **Polygon**: Layer 2 blockchain hosting Polymarket (Chain ID: 137)
- **Liquidity**: Ease of entering/exiting positions; measured by order book depth
- **Market Maker**: Entity providing buy/sell orders to maintain liquidity

## Content & Research (Insights)

Runner publishes expert market analysis at https://runner.trade/insights

Article categories:
- Crypto price predictions: Bitcoin 2030, XRP, Cardano, DOGE, HBAR, Chainlink, NVDA stock
- Polymarket education: How it works, legality in US, how to use, who owns it, alternatives
- Sports predictions: NBA, NFL, boxing, college football
- Market mechanics: Trading strategies, prediction accuracy, bot building

All articles include:
- Key takeaways summary
- Data tables with analyst targets and sources
- FAQ section (3-4 questions per article)
- Bull/base/bear case prediction scorecard
- Verified sources (CoinDesk, Bloomberg, ESPN, SEC filings)

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is Runner?
A: Runner (runner.trade) is a free, non-custodial analytics terminal for Polymarket prediction markets. It adds whale tracking, trader leaderboards, automated copytrading, Oracle news signals, and ATLAS geopolitical intelligence on top of Polymarket's trading infrastructure.

Q: Is Runner free to use?
A: Yes, the core platform is free. Premium features (copytrading, advanced analytics) are available via subscription.

Q: How accurate are prediction markets?
A: Academic research consistently shows prediction markets outperform polls and expert panels for forecasting binary events. Markets aggregate diverse information through price discovery, where financial incentives force participants to reveal true beliefs.

Q: What is a prediction market whale?
A: A whale is a trader placing $10,000 or more in a single prediction market transaction. Runner tracks these moves in real-time because large traders often have superior information.

Q: How does copytrading work on Runner?
A: Users select top-performing traders from the leaderboard, set an allocation amount, and Runner automatically mirrors their trades proportionally in real-time. Risk management via daily spending limits.

Q: What is Runner's relationship to Polymarket?
A: Runner is an independent analytics platform. It reads Polymarket data via API and on-chain data to provide enhanced analysis, copytrading, and intelligence features. Trades execute on Polymarket's infrastructure.

Q: What is the Runner Oracle?
A: Oracle is an AI-powered news-to-market intelligence system. It monitors breaking news sources, matches news to prediction markets, and detects when news actually moves market prices — providing real-time confirmed signals with accuracy tracking.

Q: What sports does Runner cover?
A: NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer (MLS, Premier League, La Liga, Champions League), Boxing, MMA, Tennis, Golf, Cricket, NASCAR, College Football, and College Basketball — all with real-time odds and live score integration.

Q: Is prediction market trading legal?
A: Laws vary by jurisdiction. Polymarket restricts access from certain countries. Users should check local regulations before trading.

Q: What blockchain does Polymarket use?
A: Polymarket operates on the Polygon network (Ethereum Layer 2, Chain ID: 137). Settlement is in USDC stablecoin. Trades are verifiable on-chain.

## Technical Stack

- Frontend: React + TypeScript + Vite (SPA with SSR meta injection for bots)
- Backend: Node.js + Express + PostgreSQL
- Blockchain: Polygon network for on-chain trade verification
- Real-time: WebSocket connections for live price updates
- AI: Oracle news matching, sentiment analysis, ATLAS intelligence
- Authentication: Web3 wallet + email

## URL Structure

Static pages:
- / — Home dashboard
- /pulse — Live prediction market feed
- /analytics/traders — Trader leaderboard
- /whales — Whale tracker
- /live-sports — Sports odds with live scores
- /oracle — Oracle intelligence dashboard
- /insights — Research articles index
- /learn — Educational glossary
- /docs — Platform documentation

Dynamic pages:
- /market/:slug — Individual market analysis
- /analytics/traders/:address — Trader profile
- /insights/:slug — Research article
- /oracle/signals/:id — Individual Oracle signal
- /oracle/topic/:slug — Signals by entity/topic
- /will/:slug — "Will X happen?" prediction pages

Feeds:
- /sitemap.xml — Full URL index
- /news-sitemap.xml — Google News sitemap
- /rss.xml — RSS feed of articles
- /oracle/rss.xml — RSS feed of confirmed Oracle signals
- /robots.txt — Crawl directives
- /llms.txt — Summary context for AI systems
- /llms-full.txt — This file (extended context)

## Contact

Website: https://runner.trade